Projected 2015 Share Insurance Fund Premium Range

14-CU-09 / December 2014
Projected 2015 Share Insurance Fund Premium Range
Subject
Share Insurance
Status
Active
To
Federally Insured Credit Unions

Dear Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer:

Since 2009, NCUA has provided a projected range for Temporary Corporate Credit Union Stabilization Fund assessments and National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund premiums.  The projections are provided to assist credit unions in developing budget estimates for the upcoming year. 

Now for the second consecutive year, NCUA is projecting no assessment—and only a possible small premium which would have little or no impact on credit union budgets.

For 2015, NCUA projects a potential Share Insurance Fund premium of 0 to 5 basis points (bps) of insured shares.

 
 
These projections for 2015 are the same as they were for 2014.  NCUA will continue to work toward the same result we achieved this year—no assessment and no premium.

The following table provides projected and actual Stabilization Fund assessments and Share Insurance Fund premiums for the past five years.  Each year, the actual assessment and premium has fallen within the projected range.
 
 
 
Stabilization Fund Considerations
 
The Stabilization Fund and the NCUA-Guaranteed Notes (NGN) program saved thousands of credit unions from failing in the wake of the corporate crisis.
 
In addition, NCUA has secured more than $1.75 billion in legal recoveries against Wall Street firms that sold faulty securities to five failed corporate credit unions.  Without NCUA’s legal recoveries, the surviving credit unions would likely still be facing further assessments.
 
NCUA continues to vigorously pursue legal actions to hold firms accountable for selling faulty securities or acting as trustees for faulty securities that were bought by corporate credit unions.
 
For detailed information on NCUA’s strategies and results of managing the legacy assets of failed corporate credit unions, please visit these websites:
 
Corporate System Resolution Costs 
 
 
The latest analysis suggests that the net projected remaining assessments for the corporate resolution program will total between negative $2.2 billion and negative $0.2 billion. 
 
Now that the projected assessment range is a double-negative, it’s a positive for credit unions.  It means even after paying back the United States Treasury, the NGN investors, and all other obligations, the Stabilization Fund is projected to conclude with a surplus.
 
 
 
The lower end of the assessment range (negative $2.2 billion) represents the assessment projected under both a favorable future credit environment and valuation method.  The upper end of the assessment range (negative $0.2 billion) represents the assessment projected under both an unfavorable future credit environment and a more conservative valuation method.

As long as both ends of the range remain negative, there will likely be no need for future assessments.  While NCUA estimates that there may be funds remaining after all obligations have been repaid, the Treasury debt must be fully repaid before any remaining funds on hand would be distributed to credit unions.  This is not likely to occur prior to expiration of the Stabilization Fund in 2021.
 
It is important to note that the assessment range is generated using projected legacy asset cash flows.  NCUA expects to receive these cash flows over time, but they have not been realized and could vary significantly from projections.
 
Share Insurance Fund Considerations

The Share Insurance Fund remained at the 1.30 percent normal operating level as of September 30, 2014.  After December 31, NCUA will transfer any equity in excess of the 1.30 percent to the Stabilization Fund, as required by statute. 
 
The following factors will drive the Share Insurance Fund’s equity ratio in 2015:
  • Growth in insured shares, 
  • Yield on Share Insurance Fund investments, and 
  • Cost and pace of credit union failures.
In the event of a very large credit union failure, actual premium needs in 2015 could vary from the projected range.
 
Accounting Considerations

While NCUA provides this information to assist credit unions in planning for the following year, any actual assessment or premium level would be determined by the Board when declared, and could vary from projections based on a variety of factors. 
 
Credit unions should not expense any assessment or premium until actually declared by the NCUA Board, nor use the projection as the basis for any accruals of future expenses.
 
If you have any questions related to this letter, contact NCUA’s Office of Examination and Insurance (703-518-6360 or EIMail@ncua.gov). 

Sincerely,

/s/

Debbie Matz 
Chairman